Poker Equity & OddsPocket pair vs two overcards
Short answer
A pocket pair is a small favourite over two overcards, close to a coin flip but not 55/45 every time. Counted over all 1,712,304 boards by the Poker Equity & Odds engine, AK has 48.0% against 22 and 43.9% against QQ. Offsuit or suited moves it by another two to three points.
The exact numbers, pair by pair
Two overcards, two chances. Deal it.
| The pair | vs AK offsuit | AKo has | vs AK suited | AKs has | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 52.6% | 47.4% | 50.1% | 49.9% | 0.6% |
| 33 | 53.4% | 46.6% | 50.8% | 49.2% | 0.6% |
| 44 | 54.0% | 46.0% | 51.4% | 48.6% | 0.5% |
| 55 | 54.6% | 45.4% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 0.5% |
| 66 | 55.0% | 45.0% | 52.3% | 47.7% | 0.4% |
| 77 | 55.0% | 45.0% | 52.3% | 47.7% | 0.4% |
| 88 | 55.2% | 44.8% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 0.4% |
| 99 | 55.3% | 44.7% | 52.6% | 47.4% | 0.4% |
| TT | 56.9% | 43.1% | 54.1% | 45.9% | 0.4% |
| JJ | 56.9% | 43.1% | 54.0% | 46.0% | 0.4% |
| 56.8% | 43.2% | 54.0% | 46.0% | 0.4% |
Read the pair's column: deuces are the weakest pair against AK at 52.6%, and the pair's edge grows slowly up to tens, where a card higher than the pair stops being a straight helper for AK. Queens are no better than tens against AK; what changes at the top is only the straight and the tie cards.
Why it is close to a coin flip
The pair is ahead now and stays ahead unless an ace or a king arrives. AK gets five cards to find one of its six outs, and when it does, it is usually in front. The pair wins the boards where AK misses, and that is a little more than half of them. Nobody has to do anything clever: the deck decides.
Does suited change it?
AK offsuit against 22
AK suited against 22
Suited adds the flush runouts, worth about two and a half points against every pair in the table. Against deuces that makes AKs an even flip at 49.9%; against queens it lifts AK from 43.2% to 46.0%. The table has both columns, so read the one you hold.
Smaller overcards, and overcards that connect
| Matchup | Overcards have | Pair has | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQ offsuit vs JJ | 43.1% | 56.9% | 0.4% |
| AT offsuit vs 99 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 0.4% |
| KQ offsuit vs 22 | 48.8% | 51.2% | 0.9% |
| KQ suited vs 22 | 51.3% | 48.7% | 0.9% |
A pair against overcards that share a card
This page is about two live overcards. When the overcards share a rank with the hand they face, it is not a flip any more: AQ against KQ is 73.8% for the hand with the ace, because the queen is dead for both. Lesson 1.3 in the course, When you share a card, is about exactly that.
Try your own pair
Tap in the pair and the two overcards and the calculator counts every board in a second, on the phone, with no connection. The label says EXACT when nothing was sampled.
Two chances at a pair. They already have one.
Questions
Is AK against a pocket pair a coin flip?
Close. AK offsuit has 47.4% against 22 and 43.1% against tens or jacks. Suited adds about two and a half points. The pair is the favourite every time, by a little.
Which pair does best against AK?
Tens, jacks and queens are all within a tenth of each other: 56.9%, 56.9% and 56.8% against AK offsuit. Below tens the pair's edge shrinks a point or two per rank.
Does AK suited help much?
About 2.5 points against every pair. AKs against 22 is 49.9%, the closest flip in the table.
How were these counted?
Every combination of both hands, every one of the 1,712,304 boards, in the app's engine. Nothing is sampled, so the numbers don't move between runs.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 18a5e00d. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.
