Poker Equity & OddsOdds of an overcard on the flop with a pocket pair
Short answer
With pocket kings, at least one ace comes on the flop 22.6% of the time, and 35.3% by the river. Queens see an ace or a king on 41.4% of flops, jacks on 57.0%. From jacks down, most flops bring at least one card higher than your pair. The table counts every flop, turn and river for each pair from KK to 22, in the Poker Equity & Odds engine.
Put in your own cards and the bet. The app tells you call or fold, free on iPhone and Android.
Also on Google Play
Also on the App Store
Every pair, flop to river
| Pair | Overcards left | On the flop | By the turn | By the river | Two or more on the flop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KK | 4 | 22.6% | 29.1% | 35.3% | 1.4% |
| 8 | 41.4% | 51.4% | 59.9% | 6.3% | |
| JJ | 12 | 57.0% | 67.9% | 76.3% | 13.9% |
| TT | 16 | 69.5% | 79.9% | 86.9% | 23.7% |
| 99 | 20 | 79.3% | 88.1% | 93.3% | 34.9% |
| 88 | 24 | 86.7% | 93.5% | 96.9% | 46.9% |
| 77 | 28 | 92.1% | 96.8% | 98.8% | 59.1% |
| 66 | 32 | 95.8% | 98.7% | 99.6% | 70.9% |
| 55 | 36 | 98.1% | 99.6% | 99.9% | 81.4% |
| 44 | 40 | 99.4% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 90.2% |
| 33 | 44 | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.5% |
| 22 | 48 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99.8% |
Each rank above your pair adds four overcards. Kings have only the 4 aces to worry about, queens have 8 cards, jacks 12. That is why the numbers climb so fast down the table: by tens, a flop with no overcard happens 30.5% of the time.
Kings and the ace
ace on the flop
4,420 of 19,600 flops.
ace by the river
If you see all five cards.
Roughly one flop in four or five has an ace. Most of the time it doesn't come at all, and when it does, it matters most when the other player holds one.
What an overcard does and does not mean
An overcard is a card that could have paired the other player. It doesn't mean it did. Against a hand like AK, an ace or a king on the flop is a real problem, and the pocket pair vs two overcards guide counts that matchup all the way to the river. Against a hand with no card that high, it doesn't pair them, though it can still help a straight or a flush draw. When you are behind to a bigger pair on the board, you are drawing to two cards for a set: the set odds and the outs chart give the chance.
Count what you have left
Tap in your pair and the flop, and Outs & Odds lists the cards that improve you and the exact chance one comes, free and offline.
Questions
What are the odds of an ace on the flop when you have kings?
22.6%. 4 aces are left among the cards you can't see, and 4,420 of the 19,600 flops hold at least one. By the river it is 35.3%.
How often does an overcard come with queens?
41.4% of flops have an ace or a king, and 59.9% of boards by the river.
How often does JJ see an overcard on the flop?
57.0%, more often than not. By the river it is 76.3%.
How often does a pocket pair see a flop with no overcard?
Kings 77.4%, queens 58.6%, jacks 43.0%, tens 30.5%. Below that, a clean flop is the exception.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 482550e8. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.
