Poker Equity & OddsImplied odds and reverse implied odds
Short answer
Implied odds count the chips you expect to win after you hit. Reverse implied odds count the chips you lose when you hit and still lose. A call that fails on pot odds can pass on implied odds if the extra chips you need to win are small enough to be believable. Poker Equity & Odds shows that number for one real hand below.
Pot odds say fold. Do you?
A gutshot: 4 outs to the straight. You call 50 to win 200, so you need 25.0%. You have 20.3% against top pair, counted over all 990 runouts. On the price alone that is a fold.
Your equity
- Outs
- 4
- Needs
- 25.0%
- Has
- 20.3%
- Runouts counted
- 990
How much more must you win?
Your equity times the final pot has to cover your call: equity x (pot + bet + call + extra) = call. Solve for the extra, and that is what you need to win from villain after you hit.
| Spot | Equity | Needs | Extra chips to win later |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot on the flop, 9♣ 8♦ on J♥ 7♠ 2♣ | 20.3% | 25.0% | 46.3 |
| Flush draw on the flop, 5♥ 4♥ on K♥ 9♥ 2♣ | 38.9% | 25.0% | None, the call already has the price |
| Flush draw on the turn, 9♠ 8♠ on K♠ 6♠ 2♦ 3♣ | 20.5% | 25.0% | 43.9 |
The turn flush draw has 9 outs and one card to come: 9 of 44 rivers win. The price alone says fold, and the gap is 43.9 chips. If villain has that much behind and pays off a flush, the call is fine. If not, it isn't.
When implied odds are real
- Your hand is hidden. A flush on a two-heart board is easy to see; a gutshot that fills with a seven is not.
- Both of you have the chips. The extra has to exist in the stacks, not in the hope.
- Villain pays. A player who checks the river when the flush comes in gives you nothing extra.
Reverse implied odds
By the count you have 12 outs, the hearts to a flush and the cards to a straight. Against K♥ Q♥ only 3 of 44 rivers win: every other heart makes villain a bigger flush, and the rest leave the king in front. Your equity here is 6.8%. Hitting is what costs you.
12 outs on the count. 3 of them win.
Lesson 3.6 of the course, When hitting costs you, is this hand, card by card.
Set mining in one paragraph
Calling a raise with a small pair is the same bet: you flop a set or better one time in 8.5 (11.8%, every flop counted), so the pot you win when you hit has to be many times the price you pay now. The flopping a set guide has the counts.
Decide counts the chips behind
Add the effective stack in Decide and the verdict includes implied odds. Without it, the verdict is the price alone, which is what this page starts from.
Questions
What are implied odds?
The chips you expect to win after you hit, on top of what is in the pot now. They turn a call that fails on the price alone, like a gutshot at half pot (20.3% against 25.0%), into a call if those chips are real.
How do I work out implied odds?
Equity times the final pot has to cover the call. For the gutshot above that means winning 46.3 more chips after the river than are in the pot now. If you can't name where they come from, fold.
What are reverse implied odds?
The chips you lose when you hit and still lose. 6♥ 5♥ on K♦ 10♥ 4♥ 2♠ has 12 outs by the count, but against K♥ Q♥ only 3 of 44 rivers win: the other hearts make villain a bigger flush.
Does the app count implied odds?
Yes. In Decide, add the effective stack and the verdict counts the chips still behind. Lessons 3.5 and 3.6 of the course walk through the same two hands.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 18a5e00d. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.
