Poker Equity & OddsOdds of flopping a set
Short answer
With a pocket pair, you flop a set or better one time in 8.5, which is 11.8%. This page lists the exact chance for the common starting-hand outcomes, counted by the Poker Equity & Odds engine over every one of the 19,600 possible flops and the 2,118,760 possible boards.
Pocket pair: set or better on the flop
on the flop
2,304 of 19,600 flops hold one of your two remaining eights. One in 8.5.
by the river
406,456 of 2,118,760 boards. One in 5.2, if you get to see all five cards.
Two cards of your rank are left among the 50 you can't see, and the flop is three of those 50. Quads on the flop, both of them at once, is 0.2%.
Suited cards: flush draw or flush on the flop
| On the flop | Flops | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Flush (three of your suit) | 165 | 0.8% |
| Flush draw (exactly two of your suit) | 2,145 | 10.9% |
| One of your suit | 8,151 | 41.6% |
By the river
| By the river | Boards | Chance | One in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair makes a set or better | 406,456 | 19.2% | 5.2 |
| Suited cards make a flush | 135,597 | 6.4% | 15.6 |
What a set is worth
One flop in 8.5 is the price of set mining: the pot you win when you hit has to be many times the call you make now, and villain has to pay it. That is implied odds, and the implied odds guide puts a number on it. For two unpaired cards, see the odds of flopping a pair.
Count what the flop gave you
Once the flop is down, Outs & Odds counts the cards that improve you and the exact chance they arrive, free and offline.
Questions
What are the odds of flopping a set?
11.8% with a pocket pair, one flop in 8.5: 2,304 of the 19,600 possible flops hold at least one of your two cards.
How often does a pocket pair make a set by the river?
19.2%, one time in 5.2, counted over all 2,118,760 five-card boards.
How often do suited cards flop a flush?
0.8%. A flush draw (two of your suit on the flop) comes 10.9% of the time, and a flush by the river 6.4%.
What are the odds of flopping quads?
0.2% with a pocket pair: 48 of 19,600 flops hold both of your remaining cards.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 18a5e00d. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.
