Poker Equity & OddsOdds of flopping a pair
Short answer
With two unpaired cards, at least one of them pairs on the flop 32.4% of the time, one flop in 3.1. Exactly one pair is 29.0%, and 67.6% of flops miss both cards. By the river one of them pairs 48.7% of the time. Every one of the 19,600 possible flops is counted, with the Poker Equity & Odds engine's hand evaluator for the made-hand table.
What the flop does to two unpaired cards
| On the flop | Flops | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Neither card pairs | 13,244 | 67.6% |
| One of your cards pairs | 5,676 | 29.0% |
| Two pair, both cards pair | 396 | 2.0% |
| Trips, two of one rank | 264 | 1.3% |
| Full house | 18 | 0.1% |
| Quads | 2 | 2 flops |
| Pair or better with one of your cards | 6,356 | 32.4% |
Three cards of each of your ranks are left among 50, six in all. A flop misses them when all three cards come from the other 44, which happens 13,244 times out of 19,600.
Why charts give different numbers
Ask "how often do I flop a pair" and you will find several answers, because they count different things. Pair or better with one of your cards is 32.4%. Exactly one pair of your cards, nothing more, is 29.0%. Any pair at all, including a pair on the board that you share with everyone, is more again: the engine puts AK at one pair on 40.4% of flops. All three are right; check which one a chart means.
A pair on the board is everybody's pair.
AK on the flop
neither card pairs
13,244 of 19,600 flops, about two in three.
neither pairs by the river
1,086,008 of 2,118,760 boards. Even with all five cards out, neither the ace nor the king pairs a little over half the time.
AK is a strong hand that usually misses. When it misses, its equity comes from being two overcards: six outs on the turn and river, which the outs chart turns into a chance.
Every made hand on the flop
| Best hand on the flop | AK offsuit | 76 suited |
|---|---|---|
| Straight flush | 0 flops | 4 flops |
| Quads | 2 flops | 2 flops |
| Full house | 18 flops | 18 flops |
| Flush | 0 flops | 0.8% |
| Straight | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| Trips | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Two pair | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| One pair | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| No pair | 53.6% | 51.8% |
The pair rows are identical: pairs care only about ranks. The difference is at the top. 76 suited flops a straight 1.3% and a flush 0.8% of the time, against 0.3% and none for AK offsuit, so it misses slightly less often. The flopping a set guide has the same counts for pocket pairs and suited cards.
Missed? Count what is left
Once the flop is down, Outs & Odds counts the cards that improve you and the exact chance they arrive, free and offline.
Questions
What are the odds of flopping a pair?
With two unpaired cards, 32.4% that at least one of them pairs on the flop: 6,356 of 19,600 flops, one in 3.1. Exactly one pair of your cards, nothing more, is 29.0%.
How often does AK miss the flop?
Neither the ace nor the king pairs on 67.6% of flops, about two in three. Counting straights and pairs on the board too, AK has no pair or better on 53.6% of flops.
What are the odds of pairing by the river?
48.7% that at least one of your two cards pairs once all five cards are out, counted over all 2,118,760 boards.
What are the odds of flopping two pair?
2.0% for two pair with both of your cards, 396 flops. Trips, two cards of one of your ranks, is 1.3%.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 18a5e00d. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.