Poker Equity & OddsFlop equity cheat sheet: common all-ins on the flop
Short answer
A set has 91.1% against an overpair on the flop. An overpair has 60.7% against a flush draw and 65.8% against an open-ended straight draw. Top pair against the nut flush draw is close, 54.4%, and against a flush draw plus an open-ender top pair is behind, 43.2%. Each spot below names the exact cards and suits and counts all 990 turn and river pairs in the Poker Equity & Odds engine, so nothing is rounded from memory.
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The cheat sheet
| Spot | Hands | Flop | First hand | Second hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set vs overpair | 6♠ 6♥ vs Q♣ Q♦ | 9♣ 6♦ 2♥ | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| Overpair vs top pair | A♠ A♥ vs K♣ Q♥ | K♦ 7♣ 2♠ | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| Top pair vs second pair | K♠ Q♦ vs 9♠ 8♣ | K♣ 9♥ 4♦ | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| Overpair vs flush draw | Q♠ Q♦ vs 6♥ 5♥ | J♥ 7♥ 2♣ | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| Top pair vs nut flush draw | K♠ Q♣ vs A♥ J♥ | K♥ 8♥ 3♣ | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Set vs nut flush draw | 8♠ 8♣ vs A♥ J♥ | K♥ 8♥ 3♣ | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| Overpair vs open-ended straight draw | Q♠ Q♦ vs 9♥ 8♦ | 10♣ 7♠ 2♥ | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Top pair, top kicker vs flush draw + open-ender | A♣ 10♦ vs 9♥ 8♥ | 10♥ 7♥ 2♣ | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Set vs flush draw + open-ender | 10♠ 10♣ vs 9♥ 8♥ | 10♥ 7♥ 2♣ | 57.9% | 42.1% |
Flashcards usually give these as round numbers with no suits. The suits matter: change which hearts each player holds and a flush draw gains or loses outs. The cards in the table are the ones counted, so you can type them into the calculator and get the same number.
Made hand against made hand
When both players have a pair or better, the hand behind is drawing to very few cards. Q♣ Q♦ against a set needs one of the two queens left, plus a few runner-runner boards, and has 8.9%. Top pair against an overpair, K♣ Q♥ against A♠ A♥ on K♦ 7♣ 2♠, has five outs: the two kings and three queens left. That is 18.4%. Second pair against top pair, 9♠ 8♣ on K♣ 9♥ 4♦, has the same five-out shape and comes out the same, 18.4%.
Five outs is five outs, whatever the pair.
Made hand against a draw
A draw has more outs than a pair behind, so these are much closer. An overpair against a plain flush draw, 6♥ 5♥ on J♥ 7♥ 2♣, has 60.7%: nine hearts left for the draw. Against an open-ender, 9♥ 8♦ on 10♣ 7♠ 2♥, the overpair has 65.8%. Top pair against the nut flush draw is nearly a flip, 54.4%, because the three aces left are outs for A♥ J♥ too. Swap the top pair for a set, 8♠ 8♣, and the same draw drops to 25.6%: the set fills up or makes quads on some of the rivers after a heart. How often a set fills up is on the filling up page.
When the draw is the favourite
combo draw vs top pair
Against A♣ 10♦ on 10♥ 7♥ 2♣. The draw is ahead before the turn.
combo draw vs a set
Against 10♠ 10♣, same flop. Still a real chance, even against a set.
A flush draw plus an open-ended straight draw has 15 cards that complete it, a third of the cards you can't see. Against top pair that is enough to be the favourite. Against a set it is not, because the set wins on the boards that pair, but the draw is still far from dead. These are the spots where getting all in on the flop with the draw is fine, and folding it to one normal-size bet is usually a mistake. The outs chart turns any number of outs into a chance.
Using it at the table
These are all-in numbers: both hands see the turn and the river. If there are more bets to come, the draw has to pay to see each card, and the price matters more than the equity. The should you call with a draw guide puts the two side by side for each bet size. Running it twice does not change any of these numbers, only how much the result swings: does running it twice change your equity.
Put the bet in Decide
Decide takes your hand, the board, the pot and the bet, and tells you whether the call pays, with the reason. The calculator gives the exact equity for any two hands like the ones above.
Questions
What is a set's equity against an overpair?
About ten to one. 6♠ 6♥ on 9♣ 6♦ 2♥ has 91.1% against Q♣ Q♦, over all 990 turn and river pairs. The queens need one of the two queens left.
Is a flush draw a favourite against top pair?
No, but it is close when the draw has the ace. A♥ J♥ on K♥ 8♥ 3♣ has 45.6% against K♠ Q♣. A plain flush draw against an overpair has 39.3%.
Who is ahead, top pair or a combo draw?
The draw. A flush draw plus an open-ender has 56.8% against top pair, top kicker, so it is the favourite before the turn.
How much equity does a set have against a flush draw?
74.4% against the nut flush draw. Even when the flush comes on the turn, the set can still fill up on the river.
Where the numbers come from. Every figure on this page comes from the app's own engine, the code that runs on your phone. Outs come from the Outs & Odds tool, hit chances are exact counts, and equities count every runout with no sampling. Engine build 482550e8. More worked numbers: flush draw odds and the pot odds cheat sheet.